Demographic Projection Techniques for Regions and Smaller Areas: A PrimerIn Chapter 3, the author outlines a four-step projection procedure which is used throughout the remainder of the book. Chapter 4 describes how to project population size by comparing the growth pattern of the population under study with that of another population. The next chapter covers one of the most commonly employed techniques of population projection - the cohort-survival model, which is used not only to project the size of a population but also its composition in terms of age and sex groupings. The final chapter focuses on migration, generally the most volatile component of the basic demographic equation. Primarily written for courses in planning, this book is also useful for anyone having to make decisions affected by population trends, whether they involve planning for future growth or alerting local decisionmakers to external uncertainties that could have a serious impact on the future of their community. |
Contents
Mathematical Extrapolation II24 | 23 |
Comparative Methods | 35 |
The CohortSurvival Population Model | 44 |
Migration Models | 60 |
A Final Note77 | 77 |
Comparative Methods | 78 |
Summary91 | 91 |
Selected Readings | 111 |
Common terms and phrases
age and sex age group age-specific death rate applied approach basis birth rates calculated census Chapter coefficient coefficient of determination cohort-survival model common logarithms comparative methods constant share constructed cubic function Degrees of Freedom demographic projections dependent variable determined discussion economic Error of Coeff estimates â example factors female cohorts fertility rates focus graph growth rates hyperbolic function in-migration increase independent Isserman linear function Linear Transformation logarithm males MAPE mathematical extrapolation mathematical functions measures migration flows migration process modified exponential function mortality rates natural logarithms non-linear number of observations numerical illustration out-migration P₁ parameters parent population past observations period polynomial population change population growth Population Projections prediction error projected population Projection Techniques quadratic function regression analysis regression equation regression line regression models Regression Output Research residence share method simple linear regression standard error Statistics Canada Step survival rates tion transformation trend U.S. Bureau zero