Demographic Projection Techniques for Regions and Smaller Areas: A Primer

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UBC Press, 1995 - Political Science - 116 pages
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In Chapter 3, the author outlines a four-step projection procedure which is used throughout the remainder of the book. Chapter 4 describes how to project population size by comparing the growth pattern of the population under study with that of another population. The next chapter covers one of the most commonly employed techniques of population projection - the cohort-survival model, which is used not only to project the size of a population but also its composition in terms of age and sex groupings. The final chapter focuses on migration, generally the most volatile component of the basic demographic equation. Primarily written for courses in planning, this book is also useful for anyone having to make decisions affected by population trends, whether they involve planning for future growth or alerting local decisionmakers to external uncertainties that could have a serious impact on the future of their community.

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Mathematical Extrapolation II24
Comparative Methods
The CohortSurvival Population Model
Migration Models
A Final Note77
Comparative Methods
Selected Readings

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About the author (1995)

H. Craig Davis is a professor in the Department ofCommunity and Regional Planning at the University of British Columbiaand the author of Regional Economic Impact Analysis and ProjectEvaluation (UBC Press, 1990).

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