Demographic Projection Techniques for Regions and Smaller Areas: A Primer
UBC Press, 1995 - Political Science - 116 pages
In Chapter 3, the author outlines a four-step projection procedure which is used throughout the remainder of the book. Chapter 4 describes how to project population size by comparing the growth pattern of the population under study with that of another population. The next chapter covers one of the most commonly employed techniques of population projection - the cohort-survival model, which is used not only to project the size of a population but also its composition in terms of age and sex groupings. The final chapter focuses on migration, generally the most volatile component of the basic demographic equation. Primarily written for courses in planning, this book is also useful for anyone having to make decisions affected by population trends, whether they involve planning for future growth or alerting local decisionmakers to external uncertainties that could have a serious impact on the future of their community.
What people are saying - Write a review
We haven't found any reviews in the usual places.
Mathematical Extrapolation II24
The CohortSurvival Population Model
A Final Note77
Common terms and phrases
age and sex age group age-specific analysis applied approach appropriate associated assumed assumption basic basis birth rates calculated census Chapter coefficient cohort cohort-survival model comparative methods considered constant constructed death rates defined demographic dependent variable determined difference discussion economic employed equation error estimates example expected exponential function expressed factors female fertility Figure five focus Forecasting frequently future graph growth growth rates hyperbolic illustration in-migration increase independent influences International labour linear regression logarithm males MAPE mathematical extrapolation mathematical functions means measures modified exponential mortality multiple natural observations obtain out-migration parameters parent population particular past period Planning Population Projections prediction presented procedure projection quadratic range ratio records regarding Regional regression analysis relationship Research residence Review selected share shown significant simple Squared standard statistics Step Table techniques tion transformation trend values