Critical Thinking and Intelligence AnalysisThis National Defense Intelligence College publication defines critical thinking in the context of intelligence analysis, explains how it influences the entire intelligence process, explores how it toughens the art of intelligence analysis, suggests how it may be taught, and deduces how analysts can be persuaded to adopt this habit. "David Moore has added his powerful voice to those calling for America's intelligence analysts to be more self-conscious about their methods and more venturesome in applying more formal methods." - Gregory F. Treverton, Rand Corp. "...a valuable initiative on behalf of the Intelligence Community" - Francis J. Hughes, National Defense Intelligence College. |
Contents
How Do People Reason? | 3 |
What Can Be Learned from the Past? | 20 |
How Can Intelligence Analysts Employ Critical Thinking? | 48 |
How can Analysts be Taught to Think Critically? | 61 |
How Does Critical Thinking Transform? | 74 |
What Other Points of View Exist? | 86 |
Conclusion | 95 |
Bibliography | 117 |
About the Author | 133 |
Other editions - View all
Common terms and phrases
abductive reasoning adversaries Allison and Zelikow alternative analogy analysts Analytic Pathologies answer Assessment assumptions Ben-Israel biases Castro Central Intelligence Cited hereafter Class Objectives Concepts and Tools conclusions confirmation bias course critical thinking critical thinking skills Cuba Cuban Missile Crisis Defense Intelligence Agency Defense Intelligence College denial and deception deployed developed Dillon Beach Essence of Decision Estimate evaluate evidence example Facione Foundation for Critical Garthoff Heuer HUMINT hypotheses Identify inferences Institute for Analytic intellectual intelligence analysis Intelligence Community intelligence failures issue judgments Kennedy Khrushchev Linda Elder logic March 00 Merom Moore MRBM National Defense Intelligence National Intelligence National Security Agency NDIC Neil Thomason nuclear outcomes Paul and Elder policymakers Princeton problems best suited questions Reading summaries reports Richard Paul Sherman Kent sources Soviet Strategic Intelligence structured analytic methods Studies in Intelligence think critically Thinker’s Toolkit thinkers threats U.S. Intelligence United University Press Washington weapons