Critical Thinking and Intelligence AnalysisContents: (1) How Do People Reason?; (2) What is Critical Thinking?; (3) What Can Be Learned from the Past?: Thinking Critically about Cuba: Deploying the Missiles; Assessing the Implications; Between Dogmatism and Refutation; Lacking: Disconfirmation; The Roles of Critical Thinking in the Cuban Crisis; Winners and Losers: The Crisis in Context; Ten Years Later, They Meet Again; Judgment; (4) How Can Intelligence Analysts Employ Critical Thinking?; (5) How Can Intelligence Analysts be Taught to Think Critically?; (6) How Does Critical Thinking Transform?; (7) What Other Points of View Exist?; (8) What Does the Future Hold?; (9) NSA¿s Critical Thinking and Structured Analysis Class Syllabus. Charts and tables. |
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abductive reasoning accessed 9 March adversaries Allison and Zelikow alternative analogy analysts Analytic Pathologies answer Assessment assumptions Ben-Israel biases Cambridge Castro Center Central Intelligence Central Intelligence Agency Cited hereafter confirmation bias course critical thinking critical thinking skills Cuba Cuban Missile Crisis David Defense Intelligence Agency Defense Intelligence College denial and deception deployed developed Dillon Beach Essence of Decision Estimate evaluate evidence example Facione Foundation for Critical Garthoff Heuer HUMINT hypotheses inferences intellectual intelligence analysis Intelligence Community intelligence failures issue judgments Kennedy Khrushchev last accessed Linda Elder Logic Merom Moore MRBM National Defense Intelligence National Intelligence National Security Agency NDIC nuclear October outcomes Paul and Elder policymakers problems best suited questions Reading summaries reports Richard Paul Sherman Kent sources Soviet Strategic Intelligence structured analytic methods Studies in Intelligence think critically Thinker's Toolkit thinkers U.S. Intelligence United Washington weapons York وو